Analysis of the influence of the privatization of airports on the forecast of passenger demand. The case of Colombia

Abstract

This paper analyzes the impact of airport privatization on the future development of passenger demand in these privatized airports. The Colombian airport network is used as an application framework because of its important and extensive development of concessions from the liberation of the transport industry in 1991. The research focuses on the influence of airport privatization on the short-term forecast of passenger demand. To estimate the effects on passenger demand of airport privatization, a time series model is developed using the Box-Jenkins methodology, i.e. ARIMAX models. The main results show forecasts of positive growth in demand at most of the airports analyzed.